Plan Schedule
Management
§ Inputs: Project Charter,
Project Management Plan, EEF, OPA
§ Tools &
Techniques: Expert Judgement, Data Analysis, Meetings
§ Outputs: Schedule Management
Plan
§ defines policies,
procedures and documentation for managing and controlling project schedule
§ including
scheduling methodology, tools, level of accuracy, control thresholds (limit
beyond which preventive/corrective actions needed), rules of performance
measurement (e.g. earned value)
§ lead and lags are
NOT considered as schedule constraints
§ Data analysis would
include:
§ choosing the
scheduling methodology (or a combination 9f various methods)c
§ determining the
detail level of the schedule and how often the schedule needs to be reviewed
and updated
§ the duration of
waves for rolling wave planning, etc.
Define Activities
§ Inputs: Project
Management Plan, EEF, OPA
§ Tools &
Techniques: Expert Judgement, Decomposition,
Rolling Wave Planning, Meetings
§ Outputs: Activity
List, Activity Attributes, Milestone List, Change Requests,
Project Management Plan Updates
§ the scope baseline
(as part of the Project Management Plan) is used here as it represents the
approved (stable) scope
§ further decompose work packages into activities for more detailed and accurate
estimations
§ ‘activities’ is the
PMI terminology for ‘tasks’ and ‘work efforts’
§ activity is more
related to the actual work/process to produce the
deliverables
§ activity types:
level of efforts (support, measured in time period), discrete efforts or
apportioned effort (in direct proportion to another discrete effort)
§ activities have
durations while milestones do not (zero duration)
§ changes requests are listed as
a possible output because progressive elaboration of deliverables into
activities (using rolling wave planning) may allow us to discover work that was
not initially included as part of the project baselines — need to update the
project baselines
Sequence Activities
§ Inputs: Project
Management Plan, Project Documents, EEF, OPA
§ Tools &
Techniques: Precedence
Diagramming Method, Dependency Determination and Integration, Leads and
Lags, Project Management Information System
§ Outputs: Project Schedule
Network Diagrams, Project Documents Updates
§ Precedence
Diagramming Method (PDM) to diagram dependencies
§ Network Diagramming
Tools are software tools that graphically represent activity sequences
§ network diagrams:
shows dependencies, duration, workflow, help identifying critical paths
§ precedence
relationships (also known as ‘activity on node (AON)‘
approach):
§ finish-to-start (the
majority, accounts for about 95% of all precedence relationships)
§ start-to-start
§ finish-to-finish
§ start-to-finish
(least)
§ Activity on Arrow
(AOA) or Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) activities
are represented as arrows, dashed arrows represent dummy activities (duration:
0) that shows dependencies
§ Graphical
Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) allows for
conditional branching and loops
§ Network Dependency
Types (to be determined during Sequence Activities Process):
§ Mandatory
Dependency (hard logic): A must be completed before B begins/ technical
dependencies may not be hard
§ Discretionary
Dependency (preferred, soft logic): sequence preferred by the organization,
may be removed should fast-tracking is required
§ External Dependency: dependency
required by external organization
§ Internal Dependency: precedence
relationship usually within the project team’s control
§ Milestones: the completion of
a key deliverable/a phase of the project, as checkpoints/summary for progress,
often used in funding vendor activities
§ Milestone list is
part of i) project plan, ii) project scope statement, iii) WBS dictionary
§ Leads:
begin successor activity before end of predecessor, for schedule
compression (fast-tracking) (negative lags)
§ Lags: imposed delay to
successor activity, e.g. wait 2 weeks for concrete to cure (FS +14 days)
§ Network Diagram
Setup: 7-box method, usually using software tools or
5-box method
§ if the ES and LS are identical, the activity is on the critical path
§ The Project
Management Information System provides the scheduling software to allow
planning the activities with logical relationships, leads, lags, etc.
Estimate Activity
Durations
§ Inputs: Project
Management Plan, Project Documents, EEF, OPA
§ Tools &
Techniques: Expert Judgement, Analogous Estimating, Parametric Estimating,
Three-point Estimating, Bottom-up Estimating,
Data Analysis, Decision Making, Meetings
§ Outputs: Duration Estimates, Basis of
Estimates, Project Documents Updates
§ consults SME
(subject matter experts, i.e. the one carrying out the actual work) to come
with the estimation, not on the PM’s own
§ Different
Estimating Tools and Techniques:
§ Analogous Estimating:
based on previous activity of similar nature (a form of expert judgement), used when little is known or very similar scope, works well
when project is small, NOT ACCURATE
§ Parametric Estimating:
based on some parameters, e.g. the time for producing 1000 component based on
that for 1 component * 1000, use an algorithm based on historical data,
accuracy depends on the parameters selected, can be used on [a portion of / the
entire] project
§ One-Point Estimating: based
on expert judgement, but highly unreliable
§ Three-Point Estimating: best (optimistic), most likely (realistic), worst (pessimistic) cases, Triangular Distribution vs PERT (Project Evaluation and Review
Techniques, Beta Distribution, weighted
average using statistical methods [most likely * 4 – 95% confidence level with
2 sigma]), triangular distribution
(non-weighted average of three data points), uncertainties are accounted for
§ In real-world
applications, the PERT estimate is processed using Monte Carlo analysis, tie specific confidence
factors to the PERT estimate
§ Bottom-Up Estimating: a
detailed estimate by decomposing the tasks (lower-level components of the WBS)
and aggregating the estimates based on reliable historical values, most
accurate but time-consuming
§ Heuristics: use rule of thumb
for estimating
§ standard deviation (sigma value,
deviation from mean, to specify the precision of measurement): 1 sigma: 68%, 2
sigma 95%, 3 sigma 99.7%, 6 sigma 99.99%
§ accuracy is the conformance
to the target value
§ contingency reserve: for
known unknowns, owned by PM, may be updated, part of schedule baseline
§ management reserve: for
unknown unknowns, owned by management, included in overall schedule
requirements
§ update to
documents: the basis of estimates, assumptions and contingencies
§ activity duration
estimate may be in a range, don’t include lags
§ Data Analysis tools
and technique may include:
§ Alternatives
analysis
§ Reserve analysis
§ Duration Estimates are the
quantitative assessments of the likely durations that are required to complete
the activities, phases or a project (maybe in the form of a range).
§ Basis of
Estimates provide the detail to support duration estimate process (e.g.
the basis of the estimate, assumptions, constraints, ranges of possible
estimates, confidence levels of the final estimate, individual project risks
influencing this estimate, etc.)
Develop Schedule
§ Inputs: Project
Management Plan, Project Documents, Agreements, EEF, OPA
§ Tools &
Techniques: Schedule
Network Analysis, Critical Path Method, Resource Optimization,
Data Analysis, Lead and Lags, Schedule Compression, Project Management Information
System, Agile Release Planning
§ Outputs: Schedule Baseline,
Project Schedule, Schedule Data, Project Calendars, Change Requests, Project Management Plan Updates,
Project Documents Updates
§ the schedule baseline is the approved and signed
version of project schedule that is incorporated into the PM plan
§ the project schedule is calendar-based taking
into accounts holidays/resource availability/vacations
§ vs the time estimate (work effort/level of effort)
just describes the man hours/man days
§ the Schedule Data includes schedule milestones,
schedule activities, activities attributes, and documentation of all
assumptions and constraints, alternative schedules and scheduling of
contingency reserves
§ Slack/Float
§ Slack/Float: activities that can be delayed without impacting the schedule
§ Free slack/float: time an activity can be delayed without delaying
the Early Start of the successor
§ Total slack/float:
time an activity can be delayed from early start
without delaying the project end date (scheduling
flexibility), can be negative, 0 (on the critical path) or positive
§ Project Float:
without affecting another project
§ Negative float:
problem with schedule, need schedule rework
§ Project
slack/float: time the project can be delayed without delaying another project
§ Early Start (ES) – earliest time to start the activity
§ Late Start (LS) – latest time to start without impacting the late
finish
§ Early Finish (EF) – earliest time to end the activity
§ Late Finish (LF) – latest time to finish without impacting successor
activity
§ Slack/Float = LS – ES or LF – EF
§ The float is the
highest single value along the critical path, NOT the sum of
them
§ Critical
Path: the longest path that amount to shortest possible completion time
(usually zero floats, activities with mandatory dependency
with finish-to-start relationship), can have more than 1 critical
paths (more risks), critical paths may change (keep an eye on near-critical
paths)
§ activities on the
critical path are called critical activities
§ Path with negative float = behind schedule,
need compression to eliminate negative float
§ Forward Pass: compute the
early start
§ Backward Pass: compute the
late start
§ Fast Tracking: allow overlapping
of activities or activities in parallel, included risks/resource overloading
§ Crashing: shorten the
activities by adding resources, may result in team burnout
§ Agreements are added as
an input (in PMBOK® Guide 6th Edition) as these contain details of how the
sellers/vendors will perform the project work to meet contractual commitments.
Works from external parties will have a direct impact on the project schedule.
§ Agile Release
Planning, also added as an input, provides a high-level summary
timeline of the release schedule (typically within 3-6 months) based on the
product roadmap and the product vision for the product releases (based on
business goals, dependencies, etc.)
§ determines the
number of iterations or sprints required in a release
§ allows the product
owner and team to decide how much time needed
§ Scheduling
Techniques
§ Critical Path
Method (CPM) – compute the forward and backward pass to determine the critical
path and float
§ Critical Chain
Method (CCM) – deal with scarce resources and uncertainties, keep the resources
levelly loaded by chaining all activities and grouping the contingency and put
at the end as project buffer, for activities
running in parallel, the contingency is called feeding
buffer (expect 50% of activities to overrun)
§ The buffer is
determined by assessing the number of uncertainties, human factors, etc.
§ Parkinson’s Law: Work expands
so as to fill the time available for its completion.
§ Resource
Optimization Techniques
§ Resource leveling is used to
adjust the variation in resource loading to stabilize the number of resources
working each time and to avoid burnout, may need to extend the schedule in CPM
§ Resource smoothing is to adjust
resource requirements so as not to exceed predetermined resource limits, but
only optimized within the float boundaries
§ Data Analysis Tools
§ What if analysis: to address
feasibility/possibility of meeting project schedule, useful in creating
contingency plan
§ Monte Carlo: run thousands of
times to obtain the distribution using a set of random variables (stochastic variables), use a combination of PERT
estimate and triangular distributions as endpoint
estimates to create the model to eliminate schedule risks, the graph is an ‘S’ curve
§ Network Diagram: bar charts with
logical connections
§ Hammock activities:
higher-level summary activities between milestones
§ Milestone Charts: show only major
deliverables/events on the timeline
§ data date (status
date, as-of date): the date on which the data is recorded
§ the Project
Calendars identify working days
Control Schedule
§ Inputs: Project
Management Plan, Project Documents, Work Performance Data, OPA
§ Tools &
Techniques: Data Analysis, Critical Path Method, Project Management Information
System, Resource Optimization, Lead and Lags, Schedule Compression
§ Outputs: Work Performance
Information, Schedule Forecasts, Change Requests, Project Management Plan
Updates, Project Documents Updates
§ measure result,
make adjustments to the project work plan (if needed) through resource
optimization, lead and lags or schedule compression, and adjust metrics
§ Data analysis
includes:
§ Earned value
analysis
§ Iteration burndown
chart
§ Performance reviews
§ Trend analysis
§ Variance analysis
§ What-if scenario
analysis
§ Change requests
generated are to be assessed in the Perform Integrated Control Process
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